CPI Tops Expectations, Pressuring US Stocks; Major Indices Close Slightly Lower
**Three Major Indices Close Slightly Lower
* U.S. September CPI Rises More Than Expected
* Initial Jobless Claims Last Week Reach One-Year High
The three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower on Thursday. The U.S. September CPI rose more than expected on a monthly and yearly basis, and the number of initial jobless claims last week hit a one-year high, indicating persistent inflation and a weak labor market, putting pressure on the market.
As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 57.88 points, or 0.14%, to 42,454.12; the Nasdaq Composite fell 9.57 points, or 0.05%, to 18,282.05; the S&P 500 index fell 11.99 points, or 0.21%, to 5,780.05.
Delta Air Lines' fourth-quarter revenue guidance was below expectations due to anticipated slower travel spending, and its stock closed down 1.2%. Other airline stocks followed suit, with American Airlines falling 1.4%.
In terms of Chinese概念股, popular Chinese stocks had mixed performances on Thursday. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.3%, with Alibaba rising 1%, iQIYI falling 4.8%, and Li Auto falling 3.7%.
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor on October 10th, the September CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly higher than the market's expected 0.1%. The year-over-year increase in CPI decreased from 2.5% in August to 2.4%.
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Excluding food and energy, the core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both exceeding analysts' expectations.
The September inflation data indicate that inflation still has stickiness. Peter Cardillo, Chief Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said that the Federal Reserve may have been too aggressive in cutting interest rates earlier, and the market's expectations for a rapid decline in inflation in the coming months may need to be adjusted.Cadillo also stated that the rise in the core inflation rate is disappointing, and the best window for inflation to decline in the coming months may have passed. The Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once in December and proceed at a slower pace. Another set of data shows that the number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States last week rose to the highest level in over a year, reflecting a weak labor market, partly due to a significant increase in unemployment claims in Michigan and the impact of Hurricane Helen on some states.
The U.S. Department of Labor's report shows that for the week ending October 5th, the number of first-time unemployment claims increased by 33,000, bringing the total to 258,000, the highest level since August 2023. The report also shows that the number of continuing unemployment claims for the week ending September 28th rose to 1.86 million.
Analyst Edward Harrison said that the recent non-farm employment data is the last reliable report before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, as the next data will be distorted by factors such as strikes and hurricanes. "Today's unemployment data further confirms the signs of a weak labor market."
Interest rate traders have increased their expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders estimate that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November has risen to about 80%.
Analysts believe that although inflation remains sticky, it is generally trending downward, especially the PCE indicator, which the Federal Reserve pays more attention to, is gradually approaching the 2% target. Traders are currently weighing the weak labor market against sticky inflation, trying to predict the Federal Reserve's priorities.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic said on Thursday that he is "completely comfortable" with skipping a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, adding that recent "volatility" in inflation and employment data may provide a rationale for standing pat in November.
Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goolsbee said on Thursday that he believes the Federal Reserve will gradually cut interest rates over the next year and a half. New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams said he still believes there will be rate cuts in the future.
In the commodity market, international crude oil futures prices closed up about 3.6% on Thursday, reversing the previous two consecutive trading days of declines. Hurricane Milton swept through Florida, causing a surge in U.S. fuel usage, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East pose a risk of oil supply disruptions, supporting oil prices.
As of the close, the November delivery of light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.61 to $75.85 per barrel, a gain of 3.56%.
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