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The U.S. September inflation data has been released, hiding subtleties.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, which is slightly lower than the expected 2.3%, but compared to the 2.5% in August, there has been a decrease. Moreover, this is the fourth consecutive month that the inflation rate in the U.S. has been below 3%, indicating that U.S. inflation is continuously cooling down (at least this is what the data shows).

At the same time, the core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose by 3.3% year-on-year in September, rebounding from the 3.2% in August.

Many people believe that the rebound in U.S. inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in November and December.

Will it really be the case?

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At the same time as the release of the U.S. inflation data, unemployment data was also announced. In September, the number of U.S. jobless claims reached a 14-month high, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains weak.

A weak labor market indicates that significant interest rate cuts should continue; while the so-called rebound in inflation requires a pause in rate cuts? Employment and inflation, which should the Federal Reserve prioritize?

Therefore, considering the traditional craftsmanship of U.S. data fabrication, we have reason to suspect that the U.S. is releasing contradictory data to blur the judgment of countries around the world, especially global capital, causing them to have disagreements on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in November and December, thereby slowing down the speed of global capital outflow from the U.S.

After the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut on September 18th, a huge amount of capital flowed from North America to China, with many Wall Street magnates bullish on China, which cannot help but move the White House and the Federal Reserve.However, the data smokescreen released by the United States will not affect the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts in November and December. A reduction of 25 basis points is a highly likely event.

Why is this the case? There are three main reasons.

The first is: under high interest rates, the American manufacturing industry is on the verge of collapse; in the second and third quarters, most of the core manufacturing companies in the United States, including Boeing, Intel, Ford, Texas Instruments, and others, are either struggling to survive or have seen their profits plummet.

In late September, Intel, the last trump card of American manufacturing, was rumored to be acquired by Qualcomm due to severe losses.

At the same time, the American manufacturing index has been in a state of recessionary contraction for 21 consecutive months, exceeding the contraction cycle of manufacturing during the Lehman crisis.

Therefore, one of the core reasons for the Federal Reserve to start the rate-cutting cycle on September 18 was to save the manufacturing industry on the brink of collapse. Now that the rate has just been reduced by 50 basis points, the American benchmark interest rate is still high and not enough to improve the manufacturing industry; hence, it must continue to be reduced.

The second is: the total amount of U.S. national debt has exceeded $35 trillion. After the presidential election in November, the winner will borrow heavily to fulfill election promises and to make a "new official's three fires." Too high interest rates will increase the financial burden of the new ruler in the next four years, and he will definitely not be willing.

The third is what we have "repeatedly emphasized": as long as the U.S. stock market plummets, the Federal Reserve will save it by lowering interest rates; the last time the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points was directly caused by the previous two rounds of stock market crashes; now the U.S. stock market is once again in a horizontal fluctuation, unable to climb upward; if it really does not lower interest rates in November, Wall Street capital will make Powell look good.So, do not be confused by the data smokescreens thrown out by the United States. By clearing away the fog and seeing the bright moon, we can grasp two main handles for analyzing the economic issues of the United States.

① The internal factor is always the most important motive for the American elite class, or the White House, to make decisions, without exception. The United States will not neglect the internal factor for the sake of the external factor of Sino-American financial competition; just as the United States will not give up interest rate cuts in order to prevent global capital from coming to China.

The United States can only reduce the extent of interest rate cuts to achieve the purpose of containing China; but this reduction must not affect the White House's debt issuance, the continued rise of the U.S. stock market, and the lingering survival of the manufacturing industry.

② What is the biggest internal factor in the United States at present? It is the debt crisis, the so-called manufacturing industry reflow (to keep the last manufacturing industry from a complete collapse), and the fundamental interests of Wall Street (the U.S. stock market).